Six Questions Each City Needs to Ask -- and Answer Locally

Six questions each city needs to ask

1. Ownership model vs. access model ⬅️ today’s focus

2. Single-occupancy vs. ride sharing

3. Integrate with public transit or not

4. Rational pricing structure or not

5. Coordinated with land-use planning or not

6. Access for all vs. cherry-pick market

1️⃣ Ownership model or access model

In the ownership model, AVs replace human drivers but privately owned vehicles still dominate the mobility system.

The access model envisions fleet-based AV deployment—such as Waymo and Luobo Kuaipao (Apollo Go). At scale, this model could drastically alter the optimal number of vehicles needed in cities, in theory.

But optimal is far from realized. Empirically, ride-hailing has not reduced car ownership in the U.S.—see our study, “Impacts of Transportation Network Companies on Urban Mobility” (link).

Fleet size needs to be managed to avoid two extremes: operators tighten supply and push up prices; or flood cities with too many cars to grab market share, worsening congestion.

To manage this, cities and industry need to negotiate the optimal number of AVs. There is a short-term optimal: given the existing private cars, dynamically cap fleet size according to ridership needs; and a long term optimal, when households adjust their car ownership—if service levels and prices become sufficiently attractive to shift away from owning cars.

Carmakers, Mobility Providers and Cities

• Carmakers favor the ownership model, preserving unit sales and margins.

• Mobility Service Providers (MSPs) prefer fleets to amortize high fixed costs (e.g., sensors, software). MSPs may partner with OEMs to design fleet-specific AVs: 24/7-capable, easy to clean and maintain.

• Cities may support fleets to achieve system-wide goals: congestion management, equitable access, and operational efficiency.

Parking vs Stopping

AVs redefine the concept of parking. It will split into two functions:

• Stopping for pickups/drop-offs (curb access becomes key)

• Storage during vehicle maintenance, cleaning, charging and storage

Plausible pathway

Fleet-first, ownership-later. Cities have a brief window to set norms—before private-AV ownership “locks in”—by licensing fleets, allocating curb space, and aligning road user fees.

#AutonomousVehicles #UrbanMobility

AV for Cities Series

1. Are Cities Prepared for Autonomous Vehicles?

2. If cities are not prepared, how should they?

3. Are Cities Able to Respond?

4. AV as a Political Excuse?

5. Six Governance Models for AV Deployment

6. Human Agency and AV Deployment

7. Six Questions Each City Needs to Ask

8. Measuring the Right Thing